March is here, how does the Mountain West fit into the madness?
With the end of the regular season fast approaching and March Madness right around the corner, here’s how Mountain West Conference looks
With the end of the regular season fast approaching and March Madness right around the corner, here’s how Mountain West Conference teams look.
Bracketologists are projecting three Mountain West teams to make it to March Madness. New Mexico and Utah State are not yet locked in but are expected to be in. San Diego State and Boise State could make it in, but they have some work to do first. The Aggies are in second place in the Mountain West Conference, right behind the New Mexico Lobos who will most likely hold onto first place at this point in the season. Winning the regular season doesn’t have as much merit in March Madness seeding, so this shouldn’t concern the Aggies. Currently, the Aggies are predicted at an eight seed, meaning they’re almost guaranteed a spot at the big dance. This could be subject to change, so to solidify their spot, the Aggies must be looking ahead to performing well at the MWC tournament in Las Vegas.
New Mexico and Utah State are evenly favored, so the odds of the Lobos and the Aggies facing each other in the tournament are high. So, how do the Lobos and the Aggies stack up?
The Lobos have swept the Aggies in the regular season and hold a better conference record of 14-2 compared to USU’s 13-3. Regarding quad wins and NET rankings, the Lobos and the Aggies match each other in quad one wins, both having three. However, the Aggies have a higher NET ranking and are trending upward, moving from 34 to 33. The Lobos are ranked lower than the Aggies and are trending downward in the NET, moving from 41 to 42. Both teams are set to receive a bid; New Mexico is currently predicted to have an automatic bid and USU an at-large bid, but as far as seeding goes, the Aggies are looking at an eight seed while the Lobos are sitting at a nine. Again, this could change; whoever wins the MWC tournament will receive an automatic bid.
What must the Aggies do to reach “lock-in” territory? Again, the main priority should be winning the tournament and receiving the automatic bid. The high odds of a Utah State and New Mexico rematch mean the Aggies need to improve their strategy if they want to finally beat the Lobos.
USU can learn from New Mexico’s two losses, as the Aggies beat both of those losses, the Spartans and the Broncos.
The three-point percentage was a significant factor in both the Lobos’ losses. San Jose and Bosie both had higher three-point percentages than New Mexico. Compared to the first time the Aggies faced the Lobos, losing by 19, the Aggies had a much lower three-point percentage than the Lobos, 16.1% vs. 31.8%, respectively. In the second game, the Aggies greatly improved their three-point percentage, 38.5% to New Mexico’s 35%, and only lost by three.
Looking at Utah State’s win over Boise State, we see that the three-point percentage was almost even, with the Broncos shooting 53.8% from three and the Aggies shooting 52.4% from three. In the most recent game against San Jose, the Aggies outshot the Spartans in threes, 52%, compared to the Spartans’ 29%.
Another notable factor would be rebounding. Combining both games, the Lobos outrebounded the Aggies by 22. Looking at New Mexico’s losses, we can see that the rebounding margin is almost even.
If the Aggies can close the gap on the rebound margin and outshoot the Lobos in threes, the chances of an Aggie victory are high.
Another thing the Aggies need to keep in mind is their remaining schedule. Winning against San Diego would be a big boost for USU, but the primary focus should be avoiding bad losses. The 105-57 victory over San Jose created momentum to keep them on the right track; defeating Colorado and Air Force would keep the momentum.
USU and New Mexico should be in, but what about other Mountain West teams?
San Diego State and Boise State are on bubble watch and competing for the third MWC spot for March Madness. The Aztecs are currently on the more favorable side of the bubble, being in the last four byes. The Aztecs have a tough schedule for the previous few games, facing down top Mountain West teams, New Mexico and Utah State. Winning would give the Aztecs an advantage over the Broncos for the third spot. The Broncos, predicted to win the regular season in preseason polls, are now on the next four out. The Broncos being on the wrong side of the bubble means their chances are slim, but winning the rest of their regular season games could keep them in the talks of an at-large bid.
